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The week in Global Markets
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Attacks and shipping threats pushed oil toward $100, pressured equities, and raised the risk of an inflationary supply shock. Diplomacy briefly eased prices, but vulnerabilities around major routes remained unresolved, leaving energy as a continuing market threat.
Strong jobs data initially reopened the possibility of a Federal Reserve hike, while hot inflation and rising energy costs broadened expectations from one move to a sustained tightening path. By week’s end, markets were pricing restrictive policy and near-5% Treasury yields as a threat to valuations and growth.
Heavy borrowing, rising debt-service costs, and expanding issuance kept long-term yields elevated despite a larger Treasury buyback. Structural basis-trade risks and possible Japanese Treasury sales added to concern that supply and market plumbing could amplify the selloff.
The yen advanced on expectations of tighter Bank of Japan policy and narrowing US-Japan rate differentials. Intervention warnings and crowded short positions raised the risk of forced carry-trade unwinds and broader pressure on technology assets.
Weak domestic demand pushed China toward greater export reliance, while strong shipments and a widening trade surplus intensified foreign concerns about excess capacity. The resulting pressure has left Beijing weighing broader stimulus against mounting protectionist resistance.
Doubts about the pace and returns of AI investment spread from semiconductor valuations to the financing of data-center infrastructure. Chinese enthusiasm for domestic AI chips contrasted with growing concern that the global buildout could create concentrated equity and credit risks.
Canada converted threatened retaliation into tariffs on US goods, raising costs across integrated supply chains. Continued attention to the trade war’s effects showed the measures had become a broader regional economic risk rather than a single policy announcement.
India’s 10-year yield moved above 7% as higher global yields and crude prices lifted financing and imported-inflation risks. The rise narrows the Reserve Bank of India’s room to cut rates and exposes the rupee to further pressure.
Day’s Recap