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The week in Global Markets
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Markets moved from uncertainty about a possible Federal Reserve hike to renewed expectations of tighter policy after stronger payrolls and hawkish signals. Rising yields began pressuring equities, gold, and other risk assets, while inflation data became the next decisive test.
Japan’s 10-year yield reached 3% and its 30-year auction cleared above 4%, confirming a higher cost of capital even as demand prevented a disorderly long-end selloff. Yen strength, intervention risk, and possible sales of foreign securities added pressure to global bond markets.
Attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and failed peace expectations pushed oil higher and threatened renewed inflation, especially for importers. By week’s end, forecasts of a postwar supply surplus introduced a possible second phase in which normalized production could drive oil sharply lower.
A global rebound revived semiconductor and AI-linked equities, with Nvidia retaking leadership and investors directing new flows toward Chinese AI derivatives and emerging markets. Strong technology borrowing and concentrated gains left the rally exposed to weaker chip demand, higher energy costs, and profit-taking.
The G20 exposed widening US disputes with Europe and China over trade, imports, and the Iran war. Trump then linked trade pressure to demands for lower interest rates, making both global commerce and Federal Reserve independence more visible market risks.
China paired a planned bond-issuance push with a roughly $54 billion injection into state banks and insurers as weak property and domestic demand persisted. Measures supporting growth are also deepening pressure on local finances and reinforcing the state’s role in credit allocation.
Large deficits, weaker confidence in Treasuries’ safety premium, and heavy issuance pointed to persistently elevated US borrowing costs even if the Federal Reserve eventually cuts rates. The repricing threatened to spread across equities, credit, and emerging markets.
The Netherlands moved substantial gold holdings out of North America, extending a shift toward physical and jurisdictional control of reserves. The move connected reserve management more directly to geopolitical risk and concern about reliance on US-controlled financial infrastructure.
Day’s Recap