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The week in Global Markets
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AI demand powered Korean chips, Chinese technology valuations, and the broader equity rally, while new compute markets showed how infrastructure had become a tradable asset. The trade then faced sharper concentration, leverage, valuation, and liquidity risks, including a reported $15 billion trading loss and institutional trimming.
The yen repeatedly surrendered intervention-driven gains as investors focused on Japan's underlying rate disadvantage. Expectations of faster Bank of Japan normalization and renewed intervention risk then raised the prospect of a disorderly carry-trade reversal across global risk assets.
Persistent closure threats and renewed tensions kept oil risk elevated through the week, linking energy disruption to inflation, weaker growth, and pressure on equities. Higher oil later helped break Europe's equity advance and complicated the Federal Reserve's response.
Long-term borrowing costs rose across major markets as heavy issuance, fiscal strain, and expectations for higher rates pushed yields higher. The pressure broadened from US Treasuries and Korean debt to Japan and other global bond markets, tightening conditions for both portfolios and companies.
July inflation cooled enough to reduce immediate tightening pressure and lift rate-sensitive assets, but rising shelter and core prices left the outlook unresolved. Conflicting Fed officials and the prospect of multiple dissenters kept the next policy move unsettled.
US stocks reached fresh records on cooling inflation, profits, and AI optimism, while European and Singaporean markets also advanced. Weaker US retail data and renewed energy pressure then exposed the rally's dependence on technology, resilient earnings, and strong investor appetite.
Gold climbed to a two-month high as softer US inflation weakened rate-hike expectations and encouraged momentum buying. It then pulled back as policy bets shifted, though a softer dollar and continued central-bank demand provided support.
Questions about whether Russia's economy is cracking despite an Iran-war windfall recurred late in the week. The concern gained substance as a widening budget deficit showed that military spending is becoming harder to sustain.
Day’s Recap