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The month in Global Markets
Longest running story: 28 days
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Attacks and shipping disruptions pushed oil toward and above $100, repeatedly reviving fears of an inflationary supply shock. Diplomacy and inventories produced temporary relief, but renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions kept energy prices tied to higher-for-longer rate expectations.
Markets moved from uncertainty about one Federal Reserve hike to pricing a broader tightening cycle as strong data and political pressure made future policy more consequential. Treasury yields crossed 5%, while heavy issuance, debt-service costs, and weaker demand for sovereign debt turned the bond selloff into a structural repricing across credit and risk assets.
Japanese yields rose and the Bank of Japan accelerated normalization, but mixed guidance initially weakened the yen before renewed intervention concerns restored volatility. The shifting rate gap increased the risk of carry-trade unwinds and possible pressure on global bonds and technology assets.
The AI trade broadened from semiconductors and infrastructure into consumer applications and global technology shares, keeping major benchmarks supported despite higher rates. Expensive borrowing, weak debt demand, and links among chipmakers, lenders, and data centers then shifted the question from valuation to systemic financing risk.
China paired state financial support with greater reliance on exports as property weakness and soft domestic demand persisted. Record shipments and a large trade surplus intensified concerns about excess capacity, prompting broader tariff retaliation and sharpening disputes over global commerce.
Higher yields pressured stocks, emerging-market currencies, bonds, and equities, while India's relative insulation did not remove its exposure to oil and global financing costs. Major indexes held near highs only as participation narrowed, and mortgage rates above 7% added pressure to housing and demand.
Gold struggled against the opportunity cost of higher yields even as inflation and geopolitical risk supported defensive demand. The Netherlands' decision to move substantial holdings toward greater physical and jurisdictional control showed how reserve management was adapting to concern about geopolitical dependence on financial infrastructure.
Turkey moved from a sharp market withdrawal and reclassification risk to freezing funds and preparing a large liquidation linked to an alleged scheme. The response aims to contain contagion but has put investor protection and asset valuations under sharper scrutiny.
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