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The month in Global Markets
Longest running story: 28 days
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Weak payrolls and cooler inflation first pushed September hike expectations lower. Heavy issuance and fiscal concerns kept long yields elevated, then a hawkish Jackson Hole repricing lifted yields and the dollar while Treasury buybacks failed to restore confidence.
Hormuz closure threats and Iran tensions repeatedly moved oil's geopolitical premium, linking energy disruption to inflation, weaker growth, and pressure on equities. By late month, sanctions and renewed tensions pushed oil higher, keeping importers and rate-sensitive assets exposed.
AI leadership shifted from concentrated hyperscalers toward chips and other markets, then faced corrections as higher yields, leverage, and doubts over spending returns challenged valuations. Nvidia's outlook revived the trade, but narrow breadth and new corporate-bond issuance left it dependent on financing and cash-flow proof.
The yen repeatedly surrendered intervention-driven gains as investors focused on Japan's underlying rate disadvantage. Expectations of faster Bank of Japan normalization and renewed intervention risk raised the prospect of a disorderly carry-trade reversal across global assets.
A temporary US-Canada tariff pause gave way to failed negotiations and duties reaching 50% on selected goods. The dispute widened from a supply-chain threat into a broader inflation and growth risk for both economies.
Gold rose on lower-rate hopes, a softer dollar, central-bank buying, and policy uncertainty before higher rate expectations triggered a sharp selloff. Crypto also rallied on institutional demand and leverage, then reversed when the hawkish Fed repricing tightened financial conditions.
Global equities reached records on softer rate expectations, earnings, and geopolitical relief, but the advance lost breadth as weak retail data and renewed energy pressure exposed its dependence on technology and sustained investor appetite. The rally remained vulnerable to a reversal if flows or fundamentals weakened.
Private-credit stress moved from valuation concerns and refinancing pressure to a broader question about losses tied to AI infrastructure and leveraged borrowers. The month ended with exposures still difficult to measure and capable of spreading beyond specialist lenders.
Week’s Recap