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The month in Global Affairs
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The Iran-US confrontation widened from attacks and threats around Hormuz into an energy and shipping crisis, then exposed US battlefield costs, munitions shortages and accountability risks. By month’s end, rejected ceasefire terms and escorted shipping had replaced tentative negotiations without resolving the confrontation or restoring secure passage.
China-US tensions sharpened through G20 disputes, trade and security competition, while preparations for the Trump-Xi summit widened the agenda to technology, Taiwan, critical minerals and Iran. The summit and an AI safety channel contained immediate escalation, but they left the underlying rivalry and competing visions of AI power intact.
Houthi advances and attacks expanded the Yemen conflict from Red Sea pressure into threats to Saudi infrastructure and fighting near Marib and Riyadh. A limited shipping arrangement allowed some relief, but renewed Saudi-linked combat and wider mobilisation kept the regional danger unresolved.
Washington’s Venezuela policy expanded from Chevron operations into a broader oil, investment and debt arrangement despite infrastructure, sovereignty and governance concerns. Later talks produced promises of elections and prisoner releases, creating a limited political opening whose credibility still depends on access, monitoring and civil liberties.
Israel’s continuing operations, settlement expansion and treatment of Palestinians deepened the humanitarian and diplomatic crisis. Britain, Canada and France moved from criticism toward sanctions and direct pressure, while Israel answered with confrontation and restrictions on foreign officials.
US efforts reopened channels with Moscow and Kyiv and produced proposals for restraint, but no durable ceasefire followed. Russia intensified attacks while Ukraine launched major drone operations, leaving diplomacy visibly behind battlefield escalation.
The US-Canada dispute escalated from tariffs into restrictions affecting aircraft, products and integrated supply chains. Ottawa then pursued closer ties with the European Union and broader diversification, prompting fresh US backlash and turning economic interdependence into a strategic liability.
Iran’s loss of IAEA access became a central danger as Western governments referred its nuclear file to the UN Security Council. Tehran blamed US and Israeli strikes for blocking inspections, leaving less visibility into its program while the wider war continued.
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