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The month in Global Affairs
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The US-Iran channel moved from a fragile pause and mediated contacts to sustained attacks across the Gulf and neighboring states. Renewed missile exchanges and repeated conditional talks left diplomacy tentative as the war expanded geographically.
Russia intensified strikes and pressure on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, ports, and grain logistics as Ukraine expanded deep strikes against Russian territory, energy, and maritime targets. Leadership reshuffles and persistent interceptor shortages deepened doubts about command continuity and Kyiv's reliance on uncertain Western air-defense support.
Israel's continued attacks and settlement expansion undermined the ceasefire while Hamas's dissolution of its civilian administration complicated aid and reconstruction. A later disarmament-for-withdrawal proposal failed to halt fighting, exposing unresolved disputes over sequencing and compliance.
A truce restored some traffic, but protected corridors, mine warnings, and Iran's crude buildup showed that Hormuz remained constrained. US actions near the strait and Houthi attacks across the Red Sea then spread the danger to tankers, LNG, insurance, and alternative energy routes.
China combined pressure on Japan and the Philippines with military signaling, North Korea engagement, and preparations surrounding Taiwan's sea lanes. By month's end, the contest had also widened into technology, forced-labor, industrial-capacity, and supply-chain disputes with the United States.
After Ali Khamenei's death, tightly controlled funerals projected continuity, but Mojtaba Khamenei's absence and revenge chants exposed uncertainty. The transition emphasized continuity with regional partners while leaving Iran's domestic, regional, and nuclear direction unresolved.
Large-scale crossings overwhelmed Ceuta and prompted military deployment, pushbacks, barriers, and an EU response. At least 72 reported deaths transformed a border dispute into a bloc-wide humanitarian and political crisis.
The RSF's advance toward el-Obeid put a strategic hub and supply routes at risk, while rights investigations broadened the issue from battlefield control to civilian protection. A finding of genocide in Darfur and worsening conditions for refugees in Chad underscored the crisis's wider human cost.
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