El Niño in a thermally saturated world
Summary
The piece examines how El Niño behaves as global oceans accumulate heat, with implications for how much additional warming and rainfall disruption El Niño can still produce. It argues that a hotter baseline ocean changes the ceilings, footprints, and predictability of El Niño driven extremes.
Why it matters
If El Niño operates on a hotter ocean, governments and insurers should expect larger, less familiar climate shocks from events that would have been manageable in the past.