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The week in Global Markets
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Strong US employment data, firming inflation, and elevated energy costs moved markets from anticipated cuts toward possible Federal Reserve hikes and longer restrictive policy. The shift also hardened expectations for tighter European policy and raised Treasury yields globally.
Geopolitical disruption, falling US inventories, and constrained OPEC supply kept energy markets vulnerable even as diplomacy briefly pulled oil lower. The OECD warned that a prolonged disruption could combine renewed inflation with a severe global slowdown.
Indonesia's rupiah, equities, and bonds sold off together before authorities and other Asian governments moved to defend weaker currencies and limit capital outflows. The episode raised broader contagion risks as investors demanded concrete policy action.
The AI-led equity advance extended early in the week but then faltered after weakly received technology guidance and broader geopolitical pressure. Technology shares and bitcoin sold off, while credit managers began positioning for refinancing stress among AI-linked borrowers.
Large redemption requests at two semi-liquid private-credit funds forced withdrawal restrictions. The episodes turned concern about private-market valuations into a direct test of liquidity and investor confidence.
The yuan strengthened as investors sought regional havens, but foreign selling later hit Korean and Japanese equities. Korean investors also added downside protection as crowded positions and the breadth of the rally came under pressure.
Gold repeatedly featured as investors weighed conflict and uncertain negotiations, while its reserve-asset role and continued central-bank buying drew attention. The recurring focus suggested demand for alternatives to traditional safe assets despite periods of bullion weakness.
Day’s Recap